Climate information and farm productivity
Despite the potential of Climate Information Services (CIS) for providing timely weather forecasts and climate data to improve agricultural resilience, their adoption by farmers remains low. This gap hinders efforts to adapt to climate change, including rising temperatures and frequent droughts that threaten agricultural productivity. An upcoming IGC study evaluates the effectiveness of CIS in enhancing agricultural productivity and resilience in Ethiopia.
Ethiopia's average yearly temperature has increased by 0.25°C per decade since 1960. This rise in temperature (see Figure 1) has led to more hot days and extended dry periods, negatively impacting agriculture. Increasing evapotranspiration and falling soil moisture makes it difficult for farmers to maintain agricultural productivity. Droughts have also become more frequent, with some regions experiencing longer dry spells. These trends are predicted to continue unless substantial climate mitigation efforts are implemented globally.
Climate Information Services (CIS) offer a potential solution, by providing timely weather forecasts and climate data to help farmers make informed decisions. An upcoming IGC study explores the effectiveness of CIS in improving agricultural productivity and resilience in Ethiopia.
Figure 1: Rising heat index in Ethiopia (1950-2020)
The potential of Climate Information Services
Climate Information Services (CIS) can help farmers adapt to these changing conditions by providing them with critical easy-to-understand information about weather and climate. This information goes beyond basic weather forecasts to include seasonal forecasts, climate data analysis, early warning systems, among other relevant information. Despite its notable potential, CIS remains underused, with only 18% of Ethiopian farm households accessing these services in 2018.
Our study will address this gap by examining the impact of CIS on agricultural productivity and farmer welfare. We aim to provide new insights into how CIS can be effectively disseminated and used by farmers.
The ideas and gaps in the existing literature
While there is extensive literature on weather information and some on climate information provision, most studies focus on:
1. Studying the provision of weather information rather than climate information
2. Focusing on farmers’ access to agricultural weather/climate information rather than the impacts of receiving the service
Furthermore, the studies that do examine the impact of CIS on agricultural productivity or earnings often fall short on the methodological side by:
1. Relying on mostly qualitative methods (such as Broad and Agrawala 2000, and Vogela et.al., 2019)
2. Using small samples and non-representative data (such as Gebrehiwot and van der Veen 2013; Oladele et.al., 2018; and Oyekale 2015)
3. Focusing on non-crop agriculture (such as Luseno et.al., 2003; Egeru, 2016)
Our study aims to address these gaps by providing rigorous evidence on the impact of CIS on crop yields, income, and farmer resilience in Ethiopia.
How we aim to bridge the knowledge gap
We will conduct a pilot in 10 woredas (third-level administrative units, equivalent to a district) where we will test the feasibility of various dissemination modalities and interventions, including:
- Radio broadcasts: to increase farmer awareness of the availability and timing of radio-based CIS
- Mobile phone interventions: to provide recorded voice summaries and/or SMS-based summaries of climate forecasts
- Extension services: where capacity-building activities are conducted with extension officers at the kebele’s (the smallest administrative unit in Ethiopia, equivalent to a ward or a neighbourhood) Farmer Training Centre (FTC) to ensure they effectively communicate climate information to farmers.
We will then gather feedback from farmers and extension workers. This initial phase will help us refine our approach and select the most effective methods for the full-scale study.
Our study is designed to empower farmers by providing access to and facilitating the use of long-run seasonal forecasts. This information can empower farmers to make better and informed decisions about crucial aspects of their agricultural practices, including land preparation, crop variety selection, cropping patterns, and harvest timing. Additionally, short-run forecasts can provide farmers real-time guidance on decision-making such as when to plant and apply fertiliser.
To understand how CIS impacts productivity and resilience, we will also explore the underlying mechanisms by gathering data on several aspects of agricultural decision-making. This will include collecting information on past crop mixes, planned crop mixes for the upcoming season, seed variety choices, and input use plans. We will also track the timing of input application and other farm management practices. This comprehensive approach will help us uncover the pathways of how CIS influences farming decisions and their agricultural outcomes.
Policy implications
Our study aims to generate actionable insights for policymakers and stakeholders. By identifying the most effective dissemination strategies, we hope to enhance the resilience of Ethiopian farmers against climate change. Key policy areas where we hope to increase knowledge include:
- Data infrastructure and accessibility: By collaborating with the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia, we hope to shed light on the extent to which current climate data products meet the needs of Ethiopia’s farmers
- Expanding access: the ultimate goal for any information service is to reach across socioeconomic backgrounds and literacy status. We hope that the lessons from our work will help CIS meet the needs of a larger part of the community
Our upcoming study seeks to bridge the gap in existing research by providing robust evidence on the impact of CIS on agricultural productivity in Ethiopia. We believe that CIS has the potential to transform Ethiopian agriculture, making it more resilient to climate change and enhancing food security.