The economic and environmental future of Ethiopian coffee
Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are disrupting Ethiopia's coffee production. This critical export crop faces geographic shifts, increased pests, and declining yields.
Renowned for producing some of the world's highest-quality Arabica coffee beans, Ethiopia is the world’s fifth largest and Africa’s largest coffee producer. The livelihoods of 15-20 million Ethiopians are directly tied to coffee production. Coffee is Ethiopia’s most important export commodity, frequently accounting for over 25% of merchandise exports despite recent fluctuations in its contribution to exports. In 2021-22, it represented 35% of such exports.
The specific Arabica varieties grown in Ethiopia are highly sensitive to climate change. Warming, increased variability in precipitation and extreme weather events pose significant threats to this vital sector (see USDA, 2022; Jaramillo et al., 2009; DaMatta et al., 2018; Coffee Barometer, 2023). Even minor shifts in weather patterns can lead to lower yields, compromised bean quality (resulting in bitter or poorly flavoured coffee), and a reduction in land suitable for coffee cultivation (see Coffee Barometer, 2023; IPCC, 2022; DaMatta et al., 2019). The vulnerability of coffee production to climate change is further compounded by the fact that it is primarily undertaken by smallholder farmers with limited resources and knowledge to adapt to changing weather patterns.
Climate change reshaping coffee growing areas
The impact of climate change on coffee production are multifaceted ranging from diminishing suitable land, increased prevalence of pests, reduced quality, and indirectly through biodiversity loss. Rising temperatures and erratic rainfall patterns affect coffee production through two primary channels.
- Warmer temperatures and increased humidity shorten the incubation periods for pathogens, leading to a higher prevalence of pests and diseases that directly impact coffee production and productivity. Extreme precipitation is linked to severe outbreaks of coffee rusts.
- The optimal conditions for cultivating Arabica coffee include annual temperatures of 18-22°C and annual precipitation of 1400-2000 mm. Current production belts may become too warm, while new areas at higher altitudes may become suitable. This necessitates a transition for farmers who have traditionally relied on coffee for their livelihoods, as well as the acquisition of new knowledge and skills related to coffee cultivation, management, and marketing by potential farmers in newly suitable areas. However, the often-higher transition or adjustment costs would hinder these shifts or at least make it difficult.
Figure 1: Projected changes in surface air temperature in Ethiopia
(a) Projected annual average surface air temperature (1950-2100) (b) Monthly average surface air temperature projections (1995-2099)
Evidence of climate change impacts - production irregularities and increased disease prevalence
A recent coffee value chain survey revealed that over 80% of coffee farmers have experienced significant production irregularities in recent years. For every good harvest year, a substantial proportion of farmers reported one bad year (40%), two consecutive bad years (38%), or irregular impacts (16%) (Figure 2a). This is likely due to the spread of coffee diseases, as illustrated in Figure 2b, which shows the prevalence of coffee diseases in 2005 and 2015. By 2015, nearly 80% of farmers reported coffee diseases as a considerable challenge, with 36% considering them a major problem. The prevalence of diseases and pests appears to have intensified in recent years (Figure 2b).
Figure 2: Farmers already facing production irregularities and the prevalence of diseases due to climate change
(a) Percentage of farmers reporting production irregularities (b) Coffee disease prevalence (2005 versus 2015)
Geographic shifts towards higher altitudes in coffee production
As temperatures rise, many lowland areas in the west, south, and south-west Ethiopia, traditionally major coffee production belts, will become unsuitable for coffee or experience substantial reductions in productivity (highlighted in yellow and red in Figure 3). Conversely, new areas at higher altitudes in the central, north, and north-west, previously not associated with coffee production, will become suitable (purple shades in Figure 3).
Figure 3: Changes in Ethiopia’s coffee growing suitability by 2050
Economic and logistical barriers to adapting coffee production
The geographic shift in coffee production presents several challenges. Many current coffee growers, whose livelihoods depend almost exclusively on coffee, will need to either relocate to higher elevations or transition away from coffee cultivation. Relocation involves non-economic costs and requires substantial coordination and funding. Shifting away from coffee necessitates finding alternative income-generating activities, potentially involving a switch to other crops. Farmers in areas becoming suitable for coffee must decide whether to continue with their current crops or switch to coffee. If they choose coffee, they will need to acquire financial resources and skills for coffee cultivation, production, storage, and marketing. Additionally, due to coffee’s perennial nature (5-6 years between planting and first harvest), new entrants would need alternative income sources until their first harvest. Whether these transitions occur depends on the costs of transition and adjustment, which are expected to be high, given the small-scale nature of production.
Supporting farmers through change
The evolving landscape of coffee production due to climate change poses significant adaptation and mitigation challenges for farmers, whether they are exiting or entering coffee cultivation. For those exiting, switching to other crops or occupations or relocating to higher altitudes are feasible but costly medium- to long-term adaptation strategies. New entrants face hurdles such as acquiring the necessary coffee management skills and making substantial investments to switch from other crops. This transition requires significant investment, coordination, and funding. Research is essential to determining the best ways to support mobility and new farmers. Given the long lead times in tree crops, further research and stakeholder engagement on adaptation and mitigation mechanisms are crucial. This includes research on improving access to finance for climate change adjustment and developing resilient coffee varieties. Additionally, supporting coffee farmers by introducing coffee varieties resilient to pests, droughts, and changes in soil; new technologies including shading, composting, and mulching; and advanced pest management and complementary investments are necessary to enhance resilience.