Understanding the gradual adoption of electricity in rural South Africa

In 2024, approximately one billion people, half of them living in Africa and most of them in rural areas, still had no access to electricity. Evidence on the impacts of rural electrification in low- and middle-income countries is mixed, with some studies showing negligible impacts at the household and village level over periods of one to five years (short-term). Medium- and long-term studies, however, have shown transformative impacts on the household and village level. This mixed evidence makes it challenging to know how to prioritise spending on energy infrastructure.

In our study on technology adoption in rural Africa, we reconcile these different results in the literature by examining how long it actually takes for rural households to adopt appliances after electricity arrives, and what are some of the conditions that impact that timeframe. We analyse this transformation in rural South Africa, asking "How long does it take for rural households to adopt appliances and start using electricity productively?" 

Using a rich, longitudinal dataset from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), we shed light on how rural households gradually adopt electrical appliances post-electrification and the frictions that influence this process.

Electrification rate in South Africa

South Africa's journey toward widespread electrification has been shaped by significant political and economic changes. The mid-1990s marked the end of apartheid and the beginning of a democratic era, which saw concerted efforts to improve infrastructure in previously neglected rural areas. 

Eskom, the national power utility, played a crucial role in extending the electrical grid. By the late 1980s, Eskom had developed a comprehensive domestic transmission network, which it expanded over the next two decades to connect millions of households to the grid. 

Access to electricity in South Africa skyrocketed from 10% of households in 1980 to 90% of households in 2016​​. Most rural households received basic, free connections capable of supporting small appliance use. However, the cost of upgrading to more robust connections and purchasing appliances remained a significant barrier for many households.

Using the Agincourt HDSS Dataset to study how households take up electrification

We used data from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) to understand how rural households adopt electrical appliances. This unique dataset comprises annual surveys since 1992 of all households in the densely populated, rural area of Agincourt, South Africa. It is an annual census of over 30,000 households. Real income in the area is low, with a median household income of USD 150 per year in 2001. The HDSS tracks how households fared when access to subsidised grid electricity expanded dramatically from the early 2000s to 2014​​. 

Along with basic demographics, the HDSS provides detailed information on the timing of appliance purchases, allowing us to estimate how long it takes for households to begin using electricity productively after grid electrification arrives in their village. We examine the uptake dynamics of key appliances, including stoves, refrigerators, and televisions, which are critical for improving household efficiency and quality of life.

Recording how long households take to adopt different electric appliances

We ask how long it takes 50% of households to buy a particular appliance (such as stoves, refrigerators, and televisions) after the village electrification, defining this duration as the median time to adoption. We find that this median time ranges from 4-14 years after grid arrival and free household connections, depending on the appliance in question and the measure of grid arrival year. 

Figure 1 summarises our main results. For instance, it takes approximately four years for half of the households to adopt electric stoves​​. It takes double that amount of time for half of the households to begin to use electricity as their primary cooking method. 

Figure 1: How long it takes for households to adopt different electric appliances

Higher baseline incomes can accelerate the adoption process, and the reliability of income sources plays an important role too. Stable income streams, such as those provided by public-sector wages, are more effective in hastening appliance adoption compared to less reliable sources like remittances​​ and private-sector jobs.

Barriers to rapid adoption of electricity

We highlight several barriers that slow down the adoption of electrical appliances. High upfront costs and limited access to credit are significant obstacles. For many rural households, the expense of purchasing appliances can represent a substantial portion of their annual income. 

For example, data from the 2000 South African Income and Expenditure Survey indicates that appliance costs could account for 7-12% of annual household income​​. Our results suggest that facilitating access to credit could be a critical lever for overcoming some of these barriers, echoing findings from other regions where credit access has been shown to boost the adoption of cleaner and more efficient technologies​​ (see Berkouwer and Dean, 2022).

Need for long-term studies and tempered expectations

The findings of this study have significant implications for policymakers, development practitioners, and economists. Firstly, short-term studies will not fully capture the transformative potential of electrification, as the economic benefits often unfold gradually over many years. 

Secondly, expectations regarding the speed of economic transformation following electrification need to be tempered. Even under some of the most favourable conditions, such as those observed in South Africa (free connections and free basic electricity), the diffusion of electrical appliances in rural Africa is likely to be gradual.

Policymakers who want to speed up the benefits of electrification in rural areas can consider supporting complementary measures, such as improving access to credit and financial services, to accelerate the appliance adoption process and enhance the economic benefits of electrification​.