Leveraging digital solutions for expanding electricity access in fragile and conflict-affected settings

Only 58%  of the population residing in fragile and conflict-affected (FCS) settings have access to electricity, with access in rural areas much worse (only 36%) compared to urban centres (86%). These stats are particularly concerning as more than a billion people reside in FCS, and it is expected that by 2030, they will account for around two-thirds of the world’s poor population. 

Expanding electricity access through the traditional grid infrastructure alone is not feasible in these settings and is possibly a reason behind the low access rates. Especially in areas of active unrest, traditional grid infrastructure is a target of sabotage by non-state actors in an attempt to undermine government legitimacy. 

Solar mini grids offer a viable alternative as they can operate in a decentralised mode (independent from the main grid), are quickly deployed, utilise solar power that is abundantly available, and can reduce reliance on diesel generators, which are often expensive, difficult to maintain, and suffer from unreliable fuel supply chains in FCS.

Simultaneously, scaling electricity access will require creative and innovative approaches that are cost-effective, efficient, and go beyond business as usual. The digitalisation opportunity has been transformational in improving data collection and analytics for the electricity sector, enabling evidence-driven solutions to address the electricity access gap.

To learn more about this digitalisation opportunity, read our policy toolkit Data and technology: Challenges and opportunities for solar mini grids in fragile contexts as a part of the State Fragility initiative’s set of publications investigating key aspects of scaling up solar mini grids in FCS.

Leveraging geospatial data to inform electrification plans

In FCS, quality data is scarce and most likely outdated (the last census in the Democratic Republic of Congo was held in 1984). Dispatching field teams to conduct on-ground surveys to identify electrification sites and potential demand can be prohibitively expensive, time-consuming, and a security challenge. 

In such settings, geospatial data can be utilised to locate unelectrified and underserved communities and estimate their electricity demand. There has been a steady proliferation of geospatial platforms over the years. They are available both open source (using publicly available data at the back-end) and for a cost when customised solutions are needed (where more granular data has to be procured or when data is proprietary). These tools incorporate data on:

• Demand, including demographics (population, household size, poverty rates), and social and productive uses (education and health facilities, administrative offices, agricultural zones, small- and medium-sized enterprises, night-time lights)
• Supply, including renewable resources (solar irradiance, wind speed, hydro resources), and infrastructure (transmission and distribution networks, existing power plans, accessibility to urban areas)
• Cost parameters of different technologies, including cost of equipment, voltage lines, discount rates

National planners are applying geospatial analysis to generate country-level least-cost electrification plans by optimising a combination of electrification technologies - grid, mini grid, or stand-alone systems. Private developers are also using geospatial tools to quickly identify sites, develop appropriate financing models, and deploy solar mini grids. 

Technological innovations have enhanced the viability of solar mini grids

In recent years, innovation in generation, storage, and distribution equipment has made solar off-grid options a viable alternative to grid expansion. Digital hardware solutions such as smart inverters and controllers have helped solve the intermittency of solar energy (sunlight varies when the sky is cloudy, at night, and across seasons) by monitoring, regulating, and stabilising the voltage and frequency of the solar power generated, and smart meters have enabled remote payments (a significant advantage where mobility is restricted). Alongside, digital software solutions optimise hardware functionalities by applying machine learning and artificial intelligence to improve the precision of solar energy forecasts, efficiently manage storage for battery longevity, reduce staff site visits through remote monitoring, enhance end-user demand projections, and support mobile money payments.

Key considerations for digitalisation for scaling electricity access in FCS

For FCS, these developments present opportunities as well as challenges. Geospatial tools can reduce the precious time and cost of developing national electricity plans from traditional approaches and can encourage greater transparency when publicly available. At the same time, these tools typically focus on least-cost technology solutions without adequately internalising fragility and conflict parameters that can result in unrealistic infrastructure deployment plans in FCS. A study in Afghanistan found that electrification plans failed repeatedly to take volatile areas into consideration, recommending the construction of transmission networks over these regions. Geospatial platform developers understand these constraints. WAYA Energy, for example, can create ‘what if’ scenarios to incorporate the dynamic nature of conflict in the electrification plans it develops for governments.

Smart equipment and components are comparatively expensive and are most likely imported in FCS, making subsequent repair and replacement costly. Moreover, to conduct advanced analytics on the data generated, it must first be transmitted over mobile and internet networks. Mobile network penetration (per 100 people) in FCS is low and was 70% of the global average in 2023. Similarly, internet coverage in FCS also lags behind, with only 38% of the population using internet (compared to the global average of 63% in 2023). It can be expected that this infrastructure would most probably be established in relatively better-off and secure areas, underscoring important policy decisions around whether focusing electricity investments in such areas may inadvertently create sentiments of marginalisation and discrimination amongst those who are already behind. There are also concerns around data protection and confidentiality that need to be addressed.

The role of policymakers, international organisations, and developers

FCS policymakers can encourage and facilitate the use of digital technologies by building transparency around national electrification plans (to the extent possible in domestic settings) and making these technology-neutral, regulating equipment specifications and quality, supporting solar mini grid developers with tariff structures that make investments in digital technologies financially viable, and establishing clear data-privacy and confidentiality guidelines.

International organisations can support by establishing a common framework to improve the measurement of electricity access (both the World Bank and the International Energy Agency report on electricity access but use different sources and methodology), support financing towards digital efforts of entities that actively apply them or are in the process of incorporating them and build capacities of government and developers to better interact with digital technologies.

Private developers can support by streamlining the use of digital technologies across the project lifecycle, working with communities to design digital solutions that address their needs, building their capacity (for example, on repair and maintenance), creating opportunities for employment, and sharing data where possible for cross-sector learning.

To learn more, read our policy toolkit Data and technology: Challenges and opportunities for solar mini grids in fragile contexts and the related set of publications investigating key aspects of scaling up solar mini grids in fragile settings.