How can improvements in public transport in Peru boost access to education?

One in eight people worldwide lives in one of the 33 "megacities" - characterised by populations exceeding 10 million. Predominantly located in low- and middle-income countries, these cities are expanding rapidly, presenting both new opportunities and considerable challenges for policymakers. A critical issue in these megacities is ensuring that important amenities are accessible to all residents, particularly amenities like educational institutions, which are key drivers of economic mobility.

Furthermore, many cities in low- and middle-income countries that have inadequate infrastructure are implementing new transit policies and large-city transportation upgrades. By enhancing transportation options and reducing commuting times, these policies can significantly influence the decision-making process regarding college attendance and the pursuit of higher education. As the demand for tertiary education continues to rise, these improvements will be crucial in shaping the human capital accumulation and consequent opportunities of hundreds of millions of people over the next decades.

Reduction in commuting time to college increases enrollment 

The capital of Peru, Lima, is a megacity of 12 million people that has continuously relied on informal transportation modes, such as privately-owned minibuses (combis and colectivos).  They typically operate with little regulation, often stopping unpredictably and contributing to the congestion on the streets. 

In 2010, the city opened its first massive public transportation system, the Metropolitano, a bus rapid transit line (BRT) connecting the north and south of the city. In 2011, the city inaugurated the first line of its Metro de Lima, an elevated metro train. Together, these two new lines reduced the average commuting time by 15 minutes per ride from the student's household to any college campus in the city. Before these new transit lines were rolled out, students in these neighbourhoods spent an average of two hours per day commuting to and from college. 

I study the impact of a reduction in commuting to undergraduate college induced by the rollout of these two new mass transportation lines. To estimate the causal effects, I created a novel dataset of college and student locations by geocoding a decade's worth of students' household locations. My empirical design compares the educational choices and outcomes of students in neighbourhoods with access to new stations to those in neighbourhoods where stations were planned but not built.

My research results reveal that neighbourhoods connected to the new transportation lines experience, on average, a one percentage point increase in enrollment rates compared to neighbourhoods connected to planned-but-not-executed transportation lines. The impact is higher for private college enrollment rates, which see increasing effects over time, while public colleges show a smaller impact. This pattern reflects the Peruvian higher education landscape, where most private colleges are usually less selective, affordable, and more capable of accommodating new demand. Public colleges, on the other hand, are usually more selective and oversubscribed due to their tuition-free nature. Interestingly, the size of these increases is similar for women and men, indicating no gender differences in their response to the new transportation lines.

"I have spent so many hours sitting on a combi, and it is a waste of time. On average, I spend three hours per day going back and forth to college, and I am not even counting the rush hour. Living so far away is difficult; it means waking up very early and I cannot stay up late at night. It means not being able to eat well, that I skip meals and I cannot choose early morning classes because I know I will not make it on time." - A college student in Lima (2023)

Better transportation enables men to attend better colleges but not women

In addition to increasing access to colleges, reducing commuting time to college can also influence a student’s decisions about which college to attend. In Peru, the lack of a centralised admissions system or standardised admissions test makes it challenging to capture students' preferences. To address this, I use machine learning to identify students who were likely to attend college (or not) without the new transportation lines. This allows me to isolate the effects for students who would not attend college and students who would attend college but might change their choice of college. 

The results show gender-specific disparities in college choice, which is not surprising given the pronounced travel safety concerns and how infrastructure design is not inclusive of women’s comfort in low- and middle-income countries. For female students who were already highly inclined to attend college, their choice of institution remains largely unchanged. However, female students encouraged by the policy to attend college are more likely to choose low-quality private colleges. The central location of these colleges and their newfound accessibility through the two new transportation lines made them more attractive and eased commutes for female students. Conversely, male students tend to shift from lower-quality private colleges to public ones, which are more dispersed in the city. This represents an overall positive result for men, as public universities with no tuition cost yield higher wages in the labour market compared to low and medium-quality private colleges. 

Recognising the role of public transportation in shaping education prospects for women and men

My study provides causal evidence on the short-term impacts of improved intra-city transportation on human capital investment. This finding highlights the significant influence that commuting time can have on marginal students. Nonetheless, the effects are smaller compared to policies directly aiming to increase college access, such as providing information, early commitment to free tuition, or scholarships. 

The lessons of this paper can be useful for other large cities in Africa and Asia, as the Peruvian context is not dissimilar to other economies in low- and middle-income countries where the abundance of low-quality private college options offer lower returns in the labour market and where the gender gaps in access to education are more pronounced. It is important to recognise how public transportation can shape educational prospects for both women and men and subsequently affect their labour market trajectories, especially since an increase in the number of female students enrolling in low-quality institutions relative to male students could only exacerbate pre-existing gender disparities. 

The author presented this research as a Young Urban Economist at the Urbanisation and Poverty Reduction Conference in 2024. The call for papers is now open for presenting at the conference in 2025.