The political economy of integrating rural migrants in a Mozambican city

Urbanisation and structural change in the economy are important features of economic development. While only 39% of the Mozambican population lived in urban areas in 2023, urbanisation has increased in the last 20 years. The share of the population in urban areas has grown from 30% in 2004. However, the proportion of urban population still lags behind sub-Saharan Africa's (43%) and the world's averages (57%).

A political challenge to urbanisation in Mozambique

Simultaneously, Mozambique has been under the rule of the same dominant party since its independence in 1975. The political interests of the ruling party have not been aligned with urbanisation. In rural areas, the ruling party controls the population through incentives mediated by appointed local leaders (for example, who allocate land based on their view of who has been working on it), which is less the case in urban areas. The ruling party only lets municipal elections happen in cities, and it is only in a few of those that the opposition has made some ground and won elections.

Quelimane is one of those cities, as it has been held by the main opposition party since 2011. The city has grown in recent decades, mainly driven by the natural arrival of rural migrants looking for better economic opportunities. The city's population has more than doubled in the last decade, and Quelimane is currently the 7th largest city in Mozambique. 

This raises the need to align political interests with effective policies to promote urbanisation. Incoming migrants are often perceived as a political hazard in many world settings. However, accommodating them in urban centres may be key to breaking well-known poverty cycles around subsistence agriculture in rural settings and promoting structural change in the economy.

A programme to integrate rural migrants in Quelimane

In our study, we conducted an experiment where we designed and implemented a programme to integrate recent rural migrants in Quelimane. The programme consisted of a package to support recent rural migrants in the city framed as a municipality initiative and known as "Quelimane trabalha com todos" (Quelimane works with everybody). It was delivered through face-to-face visits in which there was a conversation entailing three components: 

1. A main component of job matching 

This entails allocating contacts (name and phone number) to programme participants of potential job offers to rural migrants. Enumerators allocated these jobs to specific migrants based on an initial survey of job preferences. To collect the information relating to these job offers, programme administrators conducted two censuses of job offers by visiting every house and establishment in the city as well as four rounds of job updating by phone with the previously collected contacts. We collected approximately 1500 job offers during this project. 

2. An introduction to mobile money 

This would take form of a presentation on Mozambique's leading mobile money service (M-PESA). It included information on how to open an account, cash-in and cash-out electronic money, as well as to make transfers. In one of the visits, participants were given a small endowment (the minimum possible) to cash in and transfer to a rural family member as an incentive to open an account for those not holding one and trialling transfers to the migrants' origin household using mobile money. The inclusion of this module was guided by the idea that the financial inclusion of migrants is an essential dimension of their integration.

3. A presentation on the city's institutional information

The first two visits to migrant participants in the programme included a general presentation of the city developed by the municipality that included information on the political context of the city, administrative divisions, documentation needed for residence in the city, electoral registration and voting process (namely in face of the 2023 municipal elections), as well as access to local schooling, healthcare, other infrastructures, and culture. By the third visit, the presentation was incorporated into a survey platform and turned into an interactive experience centred on asking migrants questions regarding the information presented.

The role of the block leaders 

Most importantly, the main version of the programme submission contained explicit support and active participation of the block leaders corresponding to the blocks where migrant participants resided. In each round of visits, the field team showed a video with a short message from the corresponding block leader, who expressed clear support for the programme and incentivised migrants to follow the instructions and advice of the enumerators. 

At the end of each visit, enumerators reminded migrants about the leader's name and contact information to reach them in case of necessity. The field team also sent a text message with the leader's name and contacts at the end of the conversation. Block leaders were encouraged to be present in all rounds of face-to-face contact with the migrants. However, their presence was only systematic on the fifth visit when they all participated in the house visits belonging to their corresponding blocks alongside the field team.

Involving block leaders increases the programme's outreach

We observe that involving leaders in programme implementation improved leaders' views and understanding of migrants as the social proximity of leaders with the migrants in their jurisdictions increased substantially (Figure 1).

Leaders increased the view that migrants are unfairly treated by 9 percentage points and that migrants are positive for the community by 12 percentage points. Leaders in this treatment group are also more acquainted with the migrants living in their blocks, as they are 6 percentage points more likely to know the migrants sampled for the programme.

Finally, there is evidence that the leader treatment increased the probability of contact between the migrant and the block leader by 4 percentage points in the eight months before the survey.

Figure 1: Impact on integration of rural migrants

In Figure 2, we can observe that leaders also became more mobilised in political campaigning during the October 2023 local elections, namely in reaching the migrants. All leaders in the study received 40 stickers praising the mayor for integrating migrants, and it was suggested that they be distributed among households in their blocks. 

The percentage of programme stickers found with households increased by 4 percentage points, which is statistically different from the number found in the basic treatment. Leaders were also more effective at mobilising taxi cyclists to participate in political rallies by 11 percentage points. These findings suggest that the programme was used for the clientelistic exchanges of leaders during the observed electoral campaign. 

This translates into higher political participation from rural migrants, as measured by inked fingers: migrants were observed voting 3 percentage points more. However, the effect is not distinguishable from the basic treatment. Both treatments were effective at mobilising migrants for campaigning: political objects are more likely to be observed by enumerators after the election by 2-3 percentage points.  

Overall, we see that the treatment effects on political outcomes become insignificant in the programme variation without leader involvement. We infer from this set of results that the policy we study aiming to integrate rural migrants in a Mozambican city is in line with the political interests of the local government, making it a good candidate for effective and development-oriented change in urbanisation policy. 

Figure 2: Impact on political participation and involvement 

Figure 3 depicts the results for the job-matching component. We observe that the programme was not particularly effective for labour market outcomes. Migrants were exposed to more job opportunities but were not more likely to be working around one year after the beginning of the intervention. They were, however, working more hours when the programme was implemented with the collaboration of local leaders. 

Figure 3: Impact on the employment outcomes of rural migrants

Local leaders can play a key role in the integration of rural migrants

Involving local leaders in delivering an integration policy raises their awareness of rural migrants and heightens their political mobilisation. 

The following findings have important implications for optimal policy design in contexts where large majorities are still living in rural areas and where increased urbanisation is likely: 

1. The political effects of policy are separate from the direct effects.
2. Involving local leaders in public service delivery may raise the effectiveness of services.
3. Supporting the integration of rural migrants – sometimes seen as a political hazard – can be politically viable for city governments.