Traffic in big cities: Global evidence and lessons for Pakistan

This blog is inspired by Gabriel Kreindler's presentation on transportation on the second day of the Winter School on Urban and Regional Economics in Africa, held in Cape Town in 2025. 

Urban traffic in Pakistan reflects a set of deeper problems linked to outdated transport models, rapid and unplanned urbanisation, and fragmented governance. With mounting global evidence on the state of mobility in cities across the world, fresh insights on congestion, public transport, and urban mobility have emerged – several of which are relevant for urban Pakistan. 

Mass transit systems may offer environmental benefits over economic growth

Investments in Lahore's Metro have often been justified on economic grounds. However, evidence suggests that the strongest payoff might be environmental, not financial. 

Using night-time light data from the 632 largest cities in the world to proxy for population and economic expansion, Gonzalez-Navarro and Turner (2018) show that the introduction of subways had an economically limited impact on urban population growth, and only a modest impact on ridership.

On the other hand, Gendron-Carrier, Gonzalez-Navarro, Polloni, and Turner (2022) investigate the effect of subway systems on urban air pollution, and reveal that subways reduce pollution – particularly in already polluted cities – by diverting commuters away from cars and motorcycles. In cities with higher baseline pollution, subways lead to a 4% reduction in particulate matter around the city centre.

Lahore and Karachi rank among the world’s most polluted cities. In such high-pollution settings, the air quality benefits of mass transit investments are likely to be significant, but remain unexplored. The IGC’s collaboration with the Punjab government on air quality dashboards and emissions research reinforces the case for linking transport investments with environmental policy, rather than relying solely on economic growth narratives.

Rising motorcycle ownership reflects gaps in urban transport

In Jakarta, transportation patterns altered significantly between 2002 and 2018, with a marked reduction in the use of public transport (including bus and rail) and a corresponding increase in private vehicle usage, especially motorcycles. This shift highlights how rising incomes and poor public transport access push commuters toward two-wheelers. Studies from Bangladesh also show that the rise of ride-hailing apps has led to a substantial increase in motorcycle ownership, with some reports indicating a 7.45% increase in motorcycle numbers in Dhaka.

Over 25 million motorcycles are registered across Pakistan, a country with a population of approximately 220 million. While motorcycles can substitute for inadequate or declining public transport in developing cities, Pakistan lacks systematic evidence on who is switching to motorcycles and why, what modes of transport are being replaced, and what consequences this will have for traffic congestion, emissions, road safety, and income mobility. 

Pakistan, like Indonesia, may need to take steps to avoid falling into a motorcycle dependence trap. Improving last-mile connectivity with buses and metros may slow this trend, and encouraging the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) could reduce the detrimental environmental impact. An IGC study in Lahore highlights how the lack of accessible, safe feeder services to mass transit nodes (like metro/bus stations) limits the uptake of mass transit systems, especially by women.

Informal transport is not as flexible as assumed  

Informal systems like minibuses and vans are often perceived as flexible. Yet, IGC research from Uganda finds that such services are poorly responsive to uneven demand shifts across cities, especially when they require coordination between multiple operators. In Karachi, van routes are monopolised by private owners ('seths'), often sticking to profitable corridors and ignoring low-demand areas. This creates a pattern of over-served central zones and under-served peri-urban belts.

In Lahore, the decline of informal vans following the rollout of the Metrobus and Orange Line has left a vacuum. No coordinated feeder system emerged in its place, leaving critical last-mile needs unmet. Digital route mapping, formal recognition of associations, and demand-responsive route auctions can enhance adaptability without undermining informal operators' business models.

Mobility constraints are more than just congestion

IGC research emphasises the link between mobility and urban design, and its impact on the economic viability of cities. Research by Akbar, Couture, Duranton, and Storeygard (2023) based on data from over 1,200 large cities shows that most of the variation in travel speed across cities may not be explained by congestion, but by differences in uncongested speed, which are determined by road infrastructure. 

A global congestion index ranks Kasur, Pakistan among the least congested cities, yet its travel speed is slower than 85% of cities in the global sample of the above study. This reveals a crucial insight for Pakistan – mobility is as much about spatial planning and economic geography as it is about easing congestion.

Karachi and Lahore, by contrast, draw massive inflows of commuters and freight daily, overstretching infrastructure and contributing to air pollution and lost productivity. Meanwhile, cities like Kasur, Sialkot, and Bahawalpur remain underutilised. IGC research stresses that effective transport policy must be paired with economic dispersion through industrial zoning, better regional connectivity, and incentives for economic activity outside of megacities.

Urban design should prioritise reducing the need for extreme daily mobility. This requires coordination between zoning, transport planning, and land-use reform, not just road building. 

Transport will not spur growth without land-use integration

The potential for transport to drive urban development depends on how it is embedded in city planning. Gonzalez-Navarro and Turner’s findings reflect a broader lesson: mass transit won’t catalyse growth without complementary policies like zoning reform, mixed land use, and economic clustering.

In Pakistan, infrastructure is often rolled out in isolation. Lahore’s Metrobus, for instance, runs through areas that could be densified or redeveloped for mixed use, but zoning remains outdated. Similarly, Karachi’s mass transit plans suffer from a lack of planned densification around stations. IGC’s urban research calls for integrated urban development strategies that couple transit with land-use policy and real estate incentives.

Safety and gender inclusion are central to effective transport 

Evidence from Kenya and South Africa reveals that behavioural and technological interventions can improve transport safety. Habyarimana and Jack’s randomised trial in Nairobi used passenger stickers urging commuters to speak out against reckless driving, leading to fewer accidents. In Cape Town, the Safe Travel To School initiative introduced telematics and driver incentives to improve minibus taxi safety.

In Pakistan, women’s mobility is restricted not only by infrastructure but by gender norms and fear of harassment. A recent Karachi-based study shows how migration, urbanisation, and perceived threats impact women’s access to public space and employment. These factors create spatial insecurities that limit agency.

To promote inclusion, all new transit initiatives should embed safety features such as panic buttons, well-lit stops, complaint mechanisms and incorporate design elements that acknowledge gendered mobility patterns. IGC research supports integrating women's mobility concerns into broader employment and urban policy strategies.

Pakistan’s cities should move towards inclusive transit systems

Urban traffic in Pakistan is not just a transport problem but a symptom of more deep-rooted issues such as poor governance, and a lack of spatial planning and good service design. Moreover, international experience reveals that while mass transit systems can help reduce pollution and enhance safety, they may not deliver inclusive growth unless paired with land-use reform, last-mile connectivity, attention to social norms, and more integrated systems that feature inclusivity.