Can Zambia harness critical minerals for broad-based development?

We increasingly hear the term ‘critical minerals’, a somewhat elusive label that evokes geopolitical tensions, the future of green technology, and environmental degradation in the wake of mining booms. Ultimately, it is a catch-all term, referring to resources extracted from the earth in vastly diverse places, at varying costs and intensities, using widely differing production techniques. What unites these minerals and metals is not how they are mined, but how they are used.

Therefore, for a scholar of mining economies seeking to understand how copper and cobalt extraction shape the economies in which it takes place, the label ‘critical’ is largely irrelevant – except insofar as it generates policy interest and signals expected demand for these minerals in the coming decades. That demand outlook is especially consequential for countries like Zambia. 

How will Zambia’s copper economy fare in the critical minerals boom?

Copper, the powerhouse of everyday electrical systems, was designated a critical mineral by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the US Department of Energy in 2025, joining a highly heterogeneous group of minerals and metals. 

Against this backdrop, Zambia, an economy heavily reliant on copper exports, stands at the threshold of a commodity price supercycle. After decades of underinvestment, the country holds vast untapped reserves of copper ore (often accompanied by cobalt), including some of the richest deposits in the world. Yet the talk of copper mining in Zambia is hardly news; it is an old industry, and several of the mines operating today were first sunk by the British in the 1920s. The key question is whether this moment represents a structural break – can Zambia finally translate a copper boom into broad-based development? Will more of the returns accrue to the Zambian government through stronger regulation and more effective tax enforcement? 

There is a reason for cautious optimism: following a wave of privatisation in the 1990s, which resulted in a toxic mix of powerful global mining companies, government corruption, and a poor investment climate, the country is in a better place today. The Zambian Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (ZEITI) has improved transparency, and the current administration has set ambitious targets for the sector. Moreover, in collaboration with the International Growth Centre, the government is strengthening the evidence base on mining impacts in preparation for the anticipated intensification of copper-cobalt mining. 

Who benefits from Zambia’s mining value chain?

In a recent research project supported by the IGC, we explore how fluctuations in the international copper price and copper production volumes drive demand for goods and services in the Zambian economy. Leveraging a partnership with the Zambian Revenue Authorities, we can measure these so-called ‘backward linkages’ at the mine-level, and trace how they propagate across Zambia’s firm network – an analysis that is novel not only for Zambia, but for mining economies more broadly. We compare and contrast this with imports and by mine ownership. 

Ownership matters not only for procurement patterns, but also for environmental risk and accountability. This is particularly relevant in Zambia, where Chinese mining companies, some of them state-owned, now operate roughly half of the large-scale copper mines. 

Chinese-owned mines have recently been linked to major environmental disasters, including the mining accident at Sino-Metals Leach in February 2025, when a dam collapse released toxic sludge into the Kafue river system, killing fish, contaminating water supplies and disrupting local agriculture. 

The hidden costs of copper mining: Environmental and community health impacts 

In 2024, we received funding from the IGC to understand the toxic metal burden borne by community members living in copper mining areas of the Copperbelt. Following the Sino-Metals accident, this work became more urgent – and more policy relevant – than we had ever anticipated, or hoped for. We conducted 16 focus group discussions in eight wards and collected soil samples from key community spots, including near schools and wells, and will soon be able to share the results from the environmental sampling and test community acceptance of personal mitigation strategies to reduce exposure to toxic metals. 

Some of the communities we spoke to bear the burden of more than a century of copper mining, compounded by the contamination of soil with toxic metals and the poor air quality stemming from smelters. Others shoulder the acute burden of accidents that contaminate the soil and water, disrupting local livelihoods and imposing long-term health consequences. Some costs are visible immediately; others unfold over decades. As one respondent told us: “The tailing dam which collapsed discharged into the Kafue River. They told their people this is a long-term issue, and people will die a slow death. We drank that water.”¹

Balancing revenue, regulation, and social license to harness Zambia’s critical minerals

Taken together, these realities underscore a central challenge:  Zambia will need to strategically harness its copper and cobalt wealth, spurring foreign direct investment and production while balancing three objectives: increasing government revenue, enforcing strict environmental safeguards, and maintaining communities’ social license to operate. 

As one participant put it: “The question then is: that copper that we have in Zambia is developing other countries where it goes… why not here?” 

1. Critical mineral supply chains are also associated, in some contexts, with child labour and other violations of labour rights. Siddharth Kara’s Cobalt Red, a Pulitzer Prize finalist, provides a deeper account of the human costs of mining.

Learn about our critical minerals work