Skip to main content

Main navigation

  • Topics
    • Themes

      • Firms
      • Cities
      • Energy
      • State
    • Current issues

      • Climate change
      • Gender equality
      • AI and data
    • Initiatives

      • Cities that Work
      • State Fragility initiative
      • Tax for Growth
      • SGB Evidence Fund
      • Agri-SME Evidence Fund
      • Climate and Growth Initiative
  • About
    • Impact
    • Governance
    • People
    • Annual report
    • Our funders
    • News
    • Careers
    • Contact us
    • Policies
  • Local ecosystems
    • Resident PhD fellowship
    • Mentorship programme
    • Local researcher impact
    • Visiting lecturers
    • Our partners
  • Where we work
    • Bangladesh
    • Ethiopia
    • Ghana
    • Jordan
    • Mozambique
    • Pakistan
    • Rwanda
    • Sierra Leone
    • Tanzania
    • Uganda
    • Yemen
    • Zambia
    • India
  • For researchers
    • Funding
    • Data sets
    • Researchers directory
    • Funded project documents
  • Publications
    • Growth briefs
    • Evidence and strategy papers
    • Publications glossary
  • Blog
  • Events
    • BREAD-IGC virtual PhD course
    • Firms, Trade, and Development Conference
    • LSE Environment Week
  1. / IGC
  2. / All projects

Countering customs fraud and corruption with machine learning

Project Active from 1 Feb 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 State Effectiveness, Tax and Tax for Growth

This project addresses customs corruption in low- and middle-income countries by testing a machine learning algorithm to predict import tax evasion, significantly improving accuracy and reducing inspection delays. A randomised controlled trial measures the algorithm's impact and potential to enhance state capacity and tax revenue collection in Paraguay.

Researchers

Frederico Finan

Professor, University of California - Berkeley

Ernesto Dal Bó

Harold Furst Chair in Management Philosophy and Values, University of California - Berkeley

Laura Schechter

Associate Professor, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Raúl Duarte

PhD candidate, Political Economy and Government, Harvard University

Share

More from IGC

Data and AI

How can AI help detect non-compliance and improve tax enforcement?

Laura Fras
Blog

Tax exposure and digital exchange at the edges of the formal economy: Experimental evidence from Tanzania

Brian Dillon, Jessica Rudder
Project report

Using machine learning to strengthen tax compliance: Lessons from Pakistan

Zehra Farooq
Blog

Heterogeneous welfare effects of corrective taxes: Evidence from South Africa’s soda tax

Tim Cejka, Marlies Piek, Mazhar Waseem
Working paper
Themes
State Effectiveness Tax
Initiatives
Tax for Growth

Footer main

All Projects All Multimedia All In focus

Footer secondary

VoxDev ↗ Ideas for India ↗ Jobs of the World ↗

Stay up to date

Subscribe to our newsletter

and follow

International Growth Centre

London School of Economics and Political Science Sir Arthur Lewis Building (SAL), Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom

[email protected]

Funded by

UK Aid Logo
© IGC 2026 Design and development by Soapbox
  • Accessibility statement
  • Cookies
  • Privacy policy