Encouraging seasonal migration to mitigate the consequences of a seasonal famine in rural Bangladesh

Hunger during pre-harvest lean seasons is widespread in the agrarian areas of Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. We randomly assign an $8.50 incentive to households in rural Bangladesh to out-migrate during the lean season. The incentive induces 22% of households to send a seasonal migrant, their consumption at the origin increases significantly, and treated households are 8-10 percentage points more likely to re-migrate 1 and 3 years after the incentive is removed. These facts can be explained qualitatively by a model in which migration is risky, mitigating risk requires individual-specific learning, and some migrants are sufficiently close to subsistence such that failed migration is very costly. We document evidence consistent with this model using heterogeneity analysis and additional experimental variation, but calibrations with forward-looking households that can save up to migrate suggest that it is difficult for the model to quantitatively match the data. We conclude with extensions to the model that could provide a better quantitative accounting of the behavior.

The data can be downloaded directly from dataverse. The data is in Stata do-files and .dta files. Data files needed for replication are included and labeled by round and/or topic. In general, each do-file creates one table or figure. In the case of multiple related tables, some dofiles create multiple tables. All tables can be made by running “Master Table and Figure Creation.do” Notes on tables, specifications or coding are commented in the do-files.