John Spray
John Spray is an economist in the research department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) working on International Trade, Supply-Chains, Production Networks and Development.
Prior to this, he was a post-doctoral fellow and PhD student in Economics at the University of Cambridge, a country economist with the International Growth Centre in Rwanda, and an Overseas Development Institute Fellow in the Ministry of Commerce and Industry in Liberia.
Content by John Spray
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Project
Network measure of bottlenecks in Ugandan firms markets
In Uganda, several supply-chains are characterised by a structure of a few very large firms and a large fringe of small firms (Spray and Wolf, 2017). These large firms anchor the economy together by providing a focal point for supply-chains to operate around. Without these anchor firms, output would drop substantially. On the other hand, these firms could exploit their...
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Publication - Policy Brief
The COVID-19 impact on Ugandan supply chains: The importance of imports
Ugandan firms do not operate in isolation: Supply chains depend on the quick supply of goods and services as inputs for productive activities. Crucially, Uganda sources these inputs both domestically as well as from foreign firms. This study first investigates the impact of COVID-19 at the outset of the pandemic on Uganda’s trade. Starting from the documented...
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Publication - Project Report
Domestic and international search frictions in Ugandan firm markets
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Project
Domestic and international search frictions in Ugandan firm markets
In low-income countries, firms do not have access to supplier databases, rendering information about firm reliability is difficult, supplier quality is variable, and search frictions between firms are likely to be large. Discussions with firms in Uganda suggest they expend substantial resources looking for new suppliers both domestically and internationally. This project...
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Project
Prices, firm-to-firm trade, and import substitution in Rwanda
In developing countries, where domestic firms often lack the capabilities to produce intermediate goods efficiently, firms rely heavily on imported intermediate inputs for production. Reflecting this observation, there is now ample evidence that import prices of these intermediate goods have important consequences for production and profit margins of the domestic importers...
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Publication - Policy Brief
The potential of backward linkages in Rwanda: A data-driven approach to supplier development programmes
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Publication - Project Report
Estimating value added in Rwanda’s domestic trade
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Publication - Policy Brief
Improving Uganda’s trade performance to spur economic growth
For most of the previous decade, Uganda’s export base has remained undiversified and dominated by a small number of raw commodities. Specifically, the performance of the manufacturing sector has stagnated for most of the previous century. Trade and export promotion have therefore been identified as an area of active policy intervention by the government. ...
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Blog post
The need to prioritise export linkages in Uganda’s new growth strategy
Establishing a unit that focuses on tackling information constraints between firms, as well as a supplier database registry of domestic firms, can support export linkages in Uganda. Linking domestic tax data to such a firm registry would further enhance access to information, thereby improving export linkages and domestic firm competitiveness, in the pursuit of economic...
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Publication - Policy note
Made in Rwanda: Establishing a publicly available supplier database for Rwanda
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Project
Improving supplier development linkages in the ‘Made in Rwanda’ policy: The potential of a Local Content Unit and a Firm Database
The Government of Rwanda has recently drafted a “Made in Rwanda” (MiR) Policy. This seeks to improve the overall trade balance by improving perceptions of Rwandan products within Rwanda, promote nascent industries, and boost productivity of exporting sectors (MINEACOM, 2017). Improving linkages between domestic suppliers and large exporting firms is a critical...
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Publication - Policy Brief
Exports and promoting backward linkages: Ideas and lessons for the Made in Rwanda policy
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Publication - Policy Brief
Industries without smokestacks in Uganda and Rwanda
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Project
Supply chains, exports, and import-substitution
The two biggest policy priorities of the Rwandan Ministry of Industry, Trade and EAC Affairs (MINEACOM) currently relate to the promotion of exports, and the reduction of the import bill through ‘domestic market recapturing’. This project will conduct two small studies that utilise firm-level tax data to better understand the dynamics and constraints in both these...
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Project
Export transitions, productivity, and the supply chain
This project assessed the consequences of Uganda's trade policy in terms of the impact on firm exports, productivity, and most interestingly, the wider supply chain. I also examine how this has important lessons for the ‘Buy Uganda, Build Uganda’ (BUBU) policy. I observed that Ugandan export and domestic trade performance is impressive and has been driven by the...
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Blog post
Can index based insurance reduce the vulnerability of farmers to weather?
An IGC study reveals that index insurance has the potential to reduce the vulnerability of farmers to weather. This is dependent on data quality and model accuracy, with the highest predictive capacity involving a combination of satellite datasets. Even so, variation in agricultural production remains a challenge. Furthermore, the insurance needs to be credible and...
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Project
Enterprise map of Rwandan maize, tourism and dairy value chains
This research paper reviews detailed data collected by the Rwanda Revenue Authority to consider the structure and behaviour of three value chains in Rwanda. This data analysis exercise complements a larger IGC study into regional value chains. Consequently, we consider the structure and behaviour of the maize, dairy and tourism value chains. This research paper found...
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Multimedia Item - Audio
Africa Growth Forum 2015: Key transformational challenges in Africa
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Blog post
How coffee can drive economic growth
In 2012, coffee accounted for almost 30% of Rwanda’s total export revenue. Considering national targets to increase export revenues by 18%, a few simple measures to improve the performance of the sector could have substantial effects on the country’s economic growth