The impact of COVID-19 and flexible credit on SMEs: Evidence from Uganda

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the engines of the Ugandan economy, comprising over 90 % of the private sector, according to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, 2011. This project will re-survey a sample of 2,400 SMEs in Uganda with the purpose of:

  • Better understand the long-term consequences of increased flexibility in loan repayments, in particular: does flexibility make firms more resilient to shocks?
  • Create important and novel data for policy with a diverse sample of firms across a range of sectors for whom we have rich pre-crisis panel data.

The SMEs were part of a randomised controlled trial implemented in collaboration with BRAC Uganda’s Small Enterprise Lending Program (SEP), where each firm was followed over 4 years. We randomly altered the repayment plan or the investment capital available to each firm, holding constant all other features of the contract.

The follow-up phone surveys on these firms will aim to understand how they cope in the face of a large, aggregate shock. The findings will contribute to the policy relevance of flexible repayment plans on small-scale businesses in low-income countries. Such a plan could be effective not only for increasing firms’ size and household consumption, but also in making them more resilient to large aggregate shocks to the economy.

Outputs

  • Publication - Policy Brief

    SMEs in Uganda: Profits and labour force shrink during COVID-19

    While the strict lockdown measures implemented in many developing countries aim to prevent the spread of COVID-19, they also risk increasing poverty and vulnerability by lowering economic activity. Uganda experienced some of the toughest lockdowns in the world. This policy brief presents key findings from a panel of over 1,600 smal and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)...

    6 May 2021 | Selim Gulesci, Francesco Loiacono, Andreas Madestam, Miri Stryjan

  • Publication - Project Report

    COVID-19, SMEs, and workers: Findings from Uganda

    Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are vital for the Ugandan economy, comprising over 90 % of the private sector (Uganda Bureau of Statistics, 2017). In this report, we present findings from a unique long panel of SMEs in Uganda, focusing in particular on changes in the trends following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Uganda experienced some of the strictest...

    23 Apr 2021 | Selim Gulesci, Francesco Loiacono, Andreas Madestam, Miri Stryjan