Growth Brief: The cost of violence – Estimating the economic impact of conﬂict
Alongside its dire humanitarian costs, armed conﬂict poses a range of risks to a country’s economic growth and development. Measuring the economic impacts of violence matters because it can inform resilience strategies and drive resources toward conﬂict prevention.
Fragile states often struggle to maintain resilience to conﬂict and other shocks; conﬂict, economic instability, poverty, and fragility tend to feed each other in a negative cycle. Recurrence of violence is the largest threat to long-term growth and development in conﬂict-affected countries.
This brief reviews some of the latest research measuring the causal effects of violent conﬂict on a range of economic outcomes. It outlines the different channels and mechanisms through which conﬂict can affect growth. The aim is to help guide policymakers on what can be done before, during, and after conﬂict to mitigate its effects.