Trading up: Harnessing the AfCFTA for growth in Uganda

  • The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents a promising offer of continent-wide market access for Uganda.
  • However, these gains are not guaranteed, and the benefits of the AfCFTA also come with increased competition for Uganda’s exports.
  • Using a sample of large geographically dispersed African countries, our modelling estimates a net reduction in exports of around $2 million per year if tariff reductions are the sole instrument of the AfCFTA.
  • But this result reverses if liberalisation is accompanied by a programme of trade facilitation measures, with exports predicted to increase by 3% ($91 million), accompanied by higher customs revenue.