Assessing the impact of indirect taxation on poverty and inequality: A pseudo-panel data analysis on Bangladesh and global insights from cross-country panel regressions

Policy brief Tax and State Effectiveness

This study utilises household-level survey data and a cross-country panel to establish a causal relationship between indirect taxation and poverty, inequality, and economic growth in Bangladesh.

  • In Bangladesh, almost two-thirds of revenue is derived from indirect sources, particularly regressive taxes like a value-added tax (VAT). 
  • This study investigates the impact of the indirect tax burden on household poverty levels in Bangladesh, employing both pseudo-panel analysis and cross-country panel analysis.
  • Findings suggest that each 1% increase in the indirect tax burden leads to a 0.42% rise in poverty – revealing the importance of reducing reliance on indirect taxation and utilising progressive taxation to address income inequality and bolster government revenue.
  • This brief suggests a phased tax reform initiative spanning 10-15 years, prioritising broadening the tax base, modernising tax administration, and shifting from traditional policing and threats to more user-friendly and automated technology.