Beyond the storm: Rethinking climate and conflict in fragile states

Synthesis paper Nov 2025 State Effectiveness, Climate change, State fragility, Climate change, conflict, COP - Conference of the Parties and State Fragility initiative

With climate change set to reshape economies, livelihoods, and resources, concerns are mounting that it will intensify instability, especially in already fragile regions. But how much do we really understand about the connections between climate shocks and conflict?

This paper aims to guide the State Fragility initiative’s new research strategy on climate change, conflict, and displacement.