Climate pessimists, adaptation optimists: Evidence on climate beliefs from a representative sample of Bangladeshis

Policy brief Sustainable Growth

This policy brief presents findings from a survey of 5,814 rural Bangladeshis on beliefs about the effects of climate change by 2050 and compares them to the best estimates from climate and economic modelling.

  • A representative sample of 5,814 rural Bangladeshis expect the effects of climate change to be more severe than the best estimates from climate and economic modelling.
  • Respondents predict larger increases in heat, lower crop yields, and higher mortality than warranted by our models. 
  • Respondents are optimistic about adaptation – they believe that there are costly adaptation measures that they can take in situ, which will allow earnings to grow by 2050.
  • Providing respondents with information about the best estimates from climate and economic modelling decreases their expectations about crop yields but does not change their beliefs about other climate outcomes.