Dynamics of greenfield development: Evidence from the "20,000 plots" project in Dar es Salaam - housing and neighbourhoods
Greenfield housing projects can reduce informal settlement by converting peripheral agricultural land into formal, purchasable plots. This brief details how, in order to succeed, these projects must ensure secure property rights, road connectivity, and early settlement by motivated residents, while prioritising smaller, affordable plots and flood-safe, accessible locations.
Authors
Francisco Libano-Monteiro
PhD Candidate, Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)
Martina Manara
PhD Student Researcher, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)
Guy Michaels
Associate Professor of Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)
Tanner Regan
Assistant Professor, George Washington University-
Henderson-et-al-Policy-Brief-May-2025-housing-and-neighbourhoods.pdf
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De novo (greenfield) projects address the problems of informal housing by purchasing cheap agricultural land on the city edges, surveying it, and partitioning it into formal plots that people can buy and build homes on.
Research suggests three keys to the success of these projects: securing formal property rights, good road access, and a group of "pioneers" who are eager to settle early. Below are key recommendations to improve the planning of de novo projects.
- Lower the minimum size of formal plots and increase the share of small plots in de novo areas; this will improve gains and offer affordable options for lower-income groups.
- Prioritise acquiring greenfield areas with good existing roads connecting to the city centre. When this is not feasible, ensure that a new road is built to connect the areas before settlement is expected to begin.
- Coordinate "pioneers" to move into de novo neighbourhoods, initiating residential clusters. A critical mass of residents is necessary to produce public goods and services.
- Prioritise the delivery of plots above the floodplain on flat land far from water sources.