Quantifying the revenue implications of the AfCFTA for Rwanda

Working paper 4 Dec 2025 State Effectiveness

The paper shows that using detailed transaction-level data yields more accurate estimates of Rwanda’s short- to medium-term fiscal effects from AfCFTA tariff cuts, revealing that statutory-rate methods overstate revenue losses. It finds that while liberalisation alone reduces net revenue, combining it with trade facilitation and strong VAT performance can generate substantial fiscal gains, underscoring the need for targeted TFA, VAT integrity, and transparent, limited exclusions.