Subnational income, convergence, and the COVID-19 pandemic
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Choudhary-et-al-May-2021-Policy-brief.pdf
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- This brief investigates the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on gross national income in Pakistan and its districts.
- To address the lack of available data, we developed a machine-learning algorithm that can predict economy activity in real time by leveraging administrative, night-light, and other real-time data.
- Urban districts in Pakistan drove the slow-down in Pakistani income, and higher COVID-19 rates were significantly correlated with lower income growth.
- Policymakers can measure real time economic activity by combining large datasets. Preemptive and prompt interventions are needed to limit spillovers across the whole country.