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Countering COVID-19: Real-time data from Pakistan

Subnational income, convergence, and the COVID-19 pandemic

Policy brief State Effectiveness, State and COVID-19

Authors

Ali Choudhary

Chief Economist (A) and Research Advisor, State Bank of Pakistan

Ijlal A. Haqqani

Researcher, State Bank of Pakistan

Federico Lenzi

Researcher, Northwestern University

Nicola Limodio

Assistant Professor of Finance, Bocconi University
  • This brief investigates the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on gross national income in Pakistan and its districts.
  • To address the lack of available data, we developed a machine-learning algorithm that can predict economy activity in real time by leveraging administrative, night-light, and other real-time data.
  • Urban districts in Pakistan drove the slow-down in Pakistani income, and higher COVID-19 rates were significantly correlated with lower income growth.
  • Policymakers can measure real time economic activity by combining large datasets. Preemptive and prompt interventions are needed to limit spillovers across the whole country.
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Subnational income, convergence, and the COVID-19 pandemic

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Policy toolkit
Themes
State Effectiveness State COVID-19
Countries
Pakistan