Understanding employment and shocks in Ethiopia: 1999-2021
This policy brief outlines the findings and policy implications of a study on the effects of two significant shocks - rainfall and conflict - on employment in Ethiopia.
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Caria et al Policy Brief March 2025.pdf
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- This policy brief explores the impacts of two major shocks – rainfall and conflict – on employment in Ethiopia. It uses non-parametric analysis to study the association between these variables.
- Employment tends to fall in years that are either very dry or very wet, mostly driven by a reduction in agricultural employment.
- Years with intense conflict are associated with falls in employment in manufacturing and services, whilst agricultural employment rises.
- These shocks are likely to become more frequent and intense, climate and conflict shocks may occur simultaneously, and the economy’s capacity to respond to conflict shocks is also likely to be imperfect.
- Various policies that boost the economy’s ability to preserve employment in the face of shocks, facilitate workers' post-conflict return to productive activities, and ensure strong social protection should be considered.
- Data-driven policymaking can guide targeted interventions and evidence-based labour market solutions.