Yemen’s climate fragility trap: Trends, consequences, and pathways for policy action

Policy brief State Effectiveness and State Fragility initiative

Yemen’s climate and conflict crises are deepening economic fragility and complicating the path toward recovery and sustainable growth. This policy brief examines Yemen’s climate-fragility trap to inform integrated, conflict-sensitive strategies that build resilience, strengthen governance, and support future investment in climate-vulnerable, growth-critical sectors.

  • Yemen has faced severe climate-induced shocks, including floods, droughts, and cyclones. These have led to significant infrastructure damage, food insecurity, displacement, and environmental degradation, worsening the country's humanitarian crisis.
  • The ongoing conflict has further strained Yemen's economy, leading to a 50% GDP contraction between 2011-2022, high inflation, unemployment, and dependence on external financing. These are all compounded by a divided economic landscape due to political fragmentation.
  • Climate change acts as a stress multiplier in Yemen, exacerbating vulnerabilities in rural areas reliant on agriculture and water resources, fuelling conflicts over scarce natural resources, and contributing to further displacement and social tensions.
  • Addressing Yemen's climate-fragility trap requires a comprehensive approach, including short-term recovery policies (i.e., fiscal buffers, social safety nets, and emergency response) and long-term resilience strategies (i.e., climate-smart agriculture, water diversification, and governance strengthening), supported by international cooperation and targeted interventions.