Housing market study for Kigali City, Rwanda

The objective of the study is to examine the formal and informal housing market in Kigali. The investigation will include:

• Current housing supply and location of that supply.
• The current housing composition by type – which implies housing quality.
• Housing backlog due to poor quality, overcrowding, or risky location.
• Use of housing finance and source if used.
• Access to basic services.
• Anticipated housing needed due to increases in population.
• Rental vs ownership by sector.
• The determinants of rental vs ownership.
• A qualitative analysis of expectations, plans, and confidence about housing supply, demand, and prices from the perspectives of different stakeholders in the housing sector.

This study will build on the Kigali housing need study which was conducted by the IGC to determine population projections and housing need within Kigali City for the next fifty years. The study also updates and improves on a European Union-funded study of the housing market from 2012.

This is one of three baseline studies commissioned by the City of Kigali in order to update the 2012 City of Kigali Master Plan and its constituent district plans. The City of Kigali has stated that inclusiveness is a priority for the 2018 Master Plan Review, which brings affordable housing to the fore. Therefore, a clear understanding of Kigali’s housing market is necessary, and it is important to collect accurate baseline information that is up to date, as a key input into the planning process.

The outcome of this study will be an updated market analysis clearly indicating current and projected supply of housing in Kigali, future demand of housing in Kigali, housing affordability ratios, and financial solutions to allow greater access to affordable housing in Kigali City. Specifically, it will review and update the Housing need study conducted by IGC in 2015. Focus shall be put on:

• Understanding current market dynamics.
• Modelling expected housing demand in 5, 10, 15 and 20 years broken down by income brackets.
• Determining existing or ongoing housing developments in Kigali, broken down by market price.
• Determining affordability of current market supply.
• Getting indications on desired affordability level.
• Determining financial mechanisms to increase access to housing by local population subdivided by income quintiles.

The researchers are currently conducting a survey among 3800 households within the 35 sectors of Kigali city. They also plan to conduct focus group discussions and key informant interviews and to also compliment the survey analysis with secondary data sources.