Robust quarterization of GDP and determination of business cycles for IGC partner countries

Project Active from to Macroeconomics and State

Tracking of business cycle (BC) turning points at high data dissemination frequency (e.g. quarterly) is important for ex-ante policy implementation and ex-post analysis of the economy. The magnitude, direction and dating of the turning points in a business cycle contains valuable information for policy makers and economic researchers alike. It is well established in monetary economics that impact of Monetary Policy is strictly a short run phenomenon; output and employment cannot be set using Monetary policy in the medium run. However quarterly GDP statistics for most of the developing economies are not available.

The aim of this project is thus two fold; for a set of developing economies (i) Estimation of quarterly national income accounts, in particular quarterly GDP, by exploiting the interlinkages of various macroeconomic variables which are available at a frequency higher than annual national income accounts, and (ii) determination, dating and stylized facts of business cycle turning points.