Uganda and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)

African economies, including Uganda, are embarking on an ambitious programme of regional integration in the form of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

The objective of this project is to study the implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area for Uganda using an approach that accounts for the heterogeneity of the impact across products and firms. A particular focus will be on opportunities to enhance Uganda exports.

The objective is to draw policy recommendations from the analysis to assist Ugandan authorities in enhancing the benefit of the AfCFTA for the country. Specifically, the project aims to focus on the anticipated reduction in tariffs between Uganda, South Africa and Ghana as markets of key interest to Ugandan policymakers.

The project first draws upon newly sourced transaction level trade data for Uganda from 2015 up to December 2020 to present a firm-level analysis of Ugandan exports. Next, the project conducts a partial equilibrium simulation of the trade impact arising from tariff reductions due to the AfCFTA, by leveraging a newly constructed SMART model. The ultimate goal of this exercise is to not only provide analytical input on an imminent policy reform, but also to build an analytical basis for further work and policy advice related to Uganda’s participation in the AfCFTA.

Outputs

  • Publication - Project Report

    Trading up: Harnessing the African Continental Free Trade Area for growth in Uganda

    African economies, including Uganda, have embarked on an ambitious programme of regional integration in the form of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). This paper uses newly sourced transaction level trade data for Uganda, and a partial equilibrium simulation model to assess the trade and revenue implications of reductions in tariffs and improvements in trade...

    25 May 2022 | Jing-Woei Chien, Harriet Conron, Lawrence Edwards , Godfrey Kamutando

  • Publication - Policy Brief

    Trading up: Harnessing the AfCFTA for growth in Uganda

    The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents a promising offer of continent-wide market access for Uganda. However, these gains are not guaranteed, and the benefits of the AfCFTA also come with increased competition for Uganda’s exports. Using a sample of large geographically dispersed African countries, our modelling estimates a net reduction in...

    24 Mar 2022 | Lawrence Edwards , Harriet Conron