Impacts of exchange rate fluctuations on imports and domestic economy in Rwanda

Policy brief Firms and Trade

In this project, we explore how exchange rate fluctuations affect firms' import and domestic activities in Rwanda.

  • In this project, we explore how exchange rate fluctuations affect firms' import and domestic activities.
  • Our analysis takes advantage of the transaction-level Customs data and the newly available Electronic Billing Machines (EBM) data, which covers the universe of the firm-to-firm and firm-to-consumer transactions by VAT registered firms in Rwanda.
  • Using the Customs data, we find that exchange rate fluctuations significantly affect import prices. Currency depreciation also reduces the quantity of imports.
  • Using the EBM data, we find evidence of import substitution, i.e., importers increase domestic purchases in response to an increase in exchange rate. Furthermore, we find limited pass-through of exchange rate fluctuation to domestic prices.
  • Our analysis suggests that a weaker Rwandan Franc is not necessarily leading to higher domestic prices that Rwandan consumers face.