Rebel governance and political trust: Post-coup politics of ethnic minorities in Myanmar

Policy brief State Effectiveness and State Fragility initiative

  • This brief explores the findings from an online survey on ethnic minority people’s exposure to armed rebel governance and their trust for the pro-democracy national government in the post-coup Myanmar.
  • Results of the survey show that people in ethnic minority areas generally have a high level of trust for the National Unity Government (NUG) and a moderate level of exposure to various governance activities by ethnic armed organisations (EAOs), such as provision of education and medical services, engagement with community problems, and taxation.
  • Individuals with higher exposure to positive rebel governance activities have higher trust for the EAOs. They also tend to have slightly lower trust for the NUG, as long as the EAO was not seen as explicitly supportive of the NUG.
  • This brief recommends that the NUG build a cooperative relationship with the ethnic armed organisations in order to gain the trust of ethnic minority people.